For the sake of argument, let’s say Trump loses in November, what is next for the GOP?

Do the moderates like Romney, Kasich, etc. return to prominence? Does the party double down on Trumpism? Something different?

I think in any Trump loss, two things are likely to also happen:

1. The Democrats win the House again by close to the same margin as 2018. That means almost every district with near-even partisan lean remains in Democratic hands, with the large bulk of the Republican House Membership coming from solid Republican territory.

2. Jones loses his Senate seat to a big Trump supporter in Tuberville. Moderate Republicans like Gardener and Collins (and perhaps others) also lose their seats. The worse Trump’s loss, the fewer Republican moderates remain in the Senate.
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The upshot of this is, in a world where Trump loses, there will be very few high profiles moderate Republicans remaining. Those who haven’t been primaried will likely have lost their seat or retired. The remainder will have all benefited somewhat from Trumpism--as the "Trumpiest" candidates in Trump country, their spots in Congress are all but assured in a world where Trumpism continues to dominate the Republican party. Meanwhile, the few moderates in safe seats such as Romney have been publicly rebuked as "RINOs" by a very substantial portion of the Republican party.

Given this, it seems to me that the path of least resistance is for the Republican party to continue to embrace Trumpism. Although he lost, neither he nor any of his core supporters will admit it. Rightly or wrongly, they will equate voter fraud claims with the Russian investigation. Many will feel "cheated" that Trump had to spend much of his term defending himself from "hoaxes," and will think turnabout is fair play. Right-wing media will be happy to indulge these impulses since both Obama and Trump's presidencies have proven that anger drives clicks and ratings.

Finally, Trump himself appears unlikely to leave the public eye if he loses. If there is one thing he seems to really like about being a politician, it's his fan base. Moreso than any other president since Reagan, he has truly won the hearts and minds of a big chunk of his voters. They hang on his every word and are fiercely loyal. Combined with the fraud narrative, I think the necessary conclusion is that many of these fans will remain on board. They aren't going to abandon him simply because he was "cheated" out of an election. That means this block will likely continue to make up the largest and most reliable group of voters on the right, which in turn means that most of the other right-wing leaders in politics and the media will continue to pander to them.

But what about the non-true believers? The folks who just want to cut taxes or ban abortion, but don't really care for Trump himself? On the one hand, they need Trump's base to win national elections. There just aren't enough Republicans to win with fractured support. But on the other hand, in this scenario, Trump just lost--likely in pretty decisive fashion. So do the moderates just roll with the punches and try again in 2024 with another Trump candidate (possibly including Trump himself). Or do they try to counter-narrative, hoping to dismantle Trump's support by arguing it was his behavior that caused his loss, and not imaginary tales of voter fraud? And if they do go down that road, are they likely to be successful?