Well said but If this problem persists, it will have huge implications for the economy in 2022 and beyond. It could act as a brake on growth and cause unnecessary business failures, long lines at remaining businesses, and rising prices.

What explains the disconnect? These are competing theories, all plausible — and potentially interrelated. Meanwhile, the economic and public health situation is evolving too quickly for research to keep up. So consider this as a guide to these potential explanations, and an accounting of the evidence for each.